ABSTRACT
Phuket is a tropical island in Thailand that is famous for tourism. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the number of tourists reducing to almost zero. Since tourism contributes around one-half of the gross provincial product of Phuket, the impact was so severe that even the numbers of people employed and registered as locals decreased. Analysing the data from January 2015 to March 2021, we found that the total, residential and non-residential monthly consumptions dropped significantly after Thailand’s State of Emergency was declared in March 2020. Unlike other studies that reported residential consumption increasing when people were required to stay home for a prolonged period, Phuket’s residential consumption decreased by more than 10% from the pre-COVID-19 level, possibly due to the drop in peer-to-peer accommodation bookings. To study the impact on consumption in detail, we modelled using cascade regression analysis by dividing the predictors into three groups, namely socioeconomics, weather and calendar period. The results showed that the number of guest arrivals was the most statistically significant in all types of consumption and should be used as a predictor for water demand forecasting models in tourism areas.